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Former President Donald Trump has gained a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets for the 2024 presidential election, with Polymarket displaying him forward 53.7% to 45.6%.
The margin, whereas slim, marks the primary time Trump has taken the lead since Harris was nominated by the Democratic social gathering after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
As of Oct. 7, over $1.4 billion has been wagered on the result of the race on Polymarket alone.
‘Extra correct than polls’
Aggregated odds from numerous platforms additionally present Trump main Harris, together with a projected 281-257 electoral school lead.
These betting traits have sparked debate over their predictive energy, particularly after Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed Trump at a Pennsylvania rally. He additionally highlighted the current lead and stated that prediction markets are a extra “correct” measure of the present sentiment amongst voters.
Musk stated in a social media submit:
“Trump now main Kamala by 3% in betting markets. Extra correct than polls, as precise cash is on the road.”
US courts just lately dominated in favor of prediction markets and dominated that betting on main political occasions just like the presidential elections was authorized, which has given a major increase to platforms providing such markets.
Nevertheless, as Election Day nears, political analysts warning in opposition to over-reliance on betting markets, which, whereas reflective of present sentiment, are usually not resistant to last-minute shifts.
Bitcoin outlook
A current Bernstein report advised that Bitcoin may surge to between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump wins, because of his assist for digital property and his promise to bolster the US as a pacesetter within the crypto business.
However, a Harris victory may see Bitcoin commerce between $30,000 and $40,000, reflecting her extra cautious stance on the business.
In the meantime, Commonplace Chartered has projected a Bitcoin rally whatever the winner, although the financial institution sees a higher rise — as much as $125,000 — if Trump takes workplace, in comparison with $75,000 beneath Harris. The sentiment is echoed within the wider crypto business, with many anticipating a extra favorable regulatory surroundings beneath Trump.
Trump’s insurance policies, together with aggressive tax cuts, are anticipated to swell the nationwide deficit, additional elevating inflation and boosting Treasury yields. Analysts recommend that this might create an ideal storm for Bitcoin’s progress, positioning it as a hedge in opposition to inflation and market uncertainty.