JPMorgan analyst predicts 50% likelihood of spot Ethereum ETF in Could

A JPMorgan govt instructed on Jan. 12 that securities regulators are equally more likely to approve or disapprove a spot Ethereum ETF within the coming months.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a Managing Director for JPMorgan, advised The Block:

“In our opinion, for the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in Could, it will have to classify Ethereum as a commodity (just like bitcoin) reasonably than a safety … That is removed from given, and I wouldn’t put greater than a 50% likelihood to the SEC classifying Ethereum as a commodity earlier than Could.”

He added that the SEC is “nonetheless signaling that it continues to view all different cryptocurrencies outdoors bitcoin as securities.”

Panigirtzoglou’s feedback allude to an announcement from SEC chair Gary Gensler relating to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) approvals on Jan. 11.

There, Gensler stated that the most recent approvals concern solely ETPs holding Bitcoin (BTC) and recognized Bitcoin as a non-security commodity. Gensler added that the approvals mustn’t sign the SEC’s views on the securities standing of different crypto belongings; he additionally asserted that the “overwhelming majority of crypto belongings are funding contracts” and subsequently below federal securities legal guidelines.

Different sources predict as much as 70% approval odds

Regardless of Panigirtzoglou’s low approval estimate, some sources place larger odds on an upcoming spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has predicted a 70% likelihood of such an approval by Could.

One prediction market on Polymarket suggests that there’s a 57% likelihood of an Ethereum ETF approval by Could 31. These odds are based mostly on over $15,000 value of cryptocurrency bets reasonably than any particular person’s private stance.

Predictions largely concentrate on Could as a result of the SEC should determine on a spot Ethereum ETF utility from VanEck by Could 23. Different candidates together with BlackRock, Constancy, VanEck, ARK Make investments, and Invesco Galaxy have additionally filed for spot Ethereum ETFs, however with later choice deadlines.

The SEC accepted a lot of ETFs that included Ethereum futures in October 2023 however has not but accepted a spot Ethereum ETF.

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