Coinbase CTO bets Bitcoin to $1M in 90 days, however I’m unsure even he believes it

Key Takeaways

• Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan wager an nameless Twitter account $1 million that Bitcoin would commerce at $1 million or higher in 90 days
• Srinivasan is predicting imminent hyperinflation and a collapse of the US greenback
• Guess is on wildly unfavourable phrases, with the opposite aspect of the wager, James Medlock, in a position to lock in large revenue risk-free by merely shopping for a name possibility with a $1 million strike for insurance coverage 
• Guess comes almost a yr to the day after Do Kwon’s notorious wager with one other nameless Twitter account over LUNA value

I’m no chemist, however probably the most potent mixtures recognized to humankind must be that of ego and cash. 

In what could go down within the annals of Web historical past, former Coinbase chief expertise officer and outstanding angel investor Balaji Srinivasan wager $1 million that the value of Bitcoin could be $1 million or higher in 90 days’ time. 

The wager was confirmed over Twitter, with the opposite aspect taken by nameless meme fanatic James Medlock. “(My spouse) is the one one who is aware of I’m James Medlock”, he posted in one other tweet. “And I instantly advised her concerning the wager”. 

What’s the wager?

The wager began when Medlock posted the beneath tweet, an innocuous tweet outlining his perception that the US wouldn’t expertise hyperinflation, apparently in response to some crypto lovers declaring that it was inevitable. 

I am going to wager anybody $1 million {dollars} that the US doesn’t enter hyperinflation

— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) March 16, 2023

It ought to have ended there. However in got here Srinivasan declaring he “will take that wager”. Not solely that, however on wildly unfavourable phrases. The setup is that this: Medlock sends 1 BTC and Srinivasan sends $1 million to escrow in the present day, with the latter denominated within the stablecoin USDC. 

The logic is that, have been hyperinflation to happen and the US greenback to break down, Bitcoin would reap the good points and explode upwards. Therefore, the wager turned from hyperinflation into the Bitcoin value. 

If Bitcoin trades at $1 million or higher on June seventeenth, the kitty is Medlock’s. If it doesn’t Srinivasan takes the bounty.

I’ll take that wager.
You purchase 1 BTC.
I’ll ship $1M USD.
That is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is price ~$26k.
The time period is 90 days.
All we want is a mutually agreed custodian who will nonetheless be there to settle this within the occasion of digital greenback devaluation.
If somebody is aware of how to do that… https://t.co/tcuBNd679T pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe

— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023

The wager is senseless

Clearly, this wager is senseless for a wide range of causes. Firstly, the unique tweet was a joke, as $1 million within the occasion of hyperinflation would turn out to be nugatory. 

However the crux of it’s the phrases. Taking a look at market odds, it is a longshot of virtually inconceivable odds. A lot so, in reality, {that a} large chunk of the wager may very well be assured to Medlock in a risk-free method in about 30 seconds, ought to he so please. 

All he must do is go to the market and purchase a name possibility on Bitcoin with a strike value of $1 million {dollars} on the identical expiry date of the wager (June seventeenth). This may value pennies compared, and an enormous chunk of the $1 million may very well be pocketed. 

After all, everyone is aware of this, and the wager is nothing greater than a seize at publicity or some kind of self-marketing stunt by Srinivasan. He reportedly already holds an enormous stash of Bitcoin in any case, with the wager not being overly materials to him. Name me a cynic, however there may be additionally the truth that Srinivasan launched a podcast a month in the past. 

The humorous half is that Medlock didn’t have 1 BTC, price $26,000 on the time, at hand. Poker participant Isaac Haxton stepped in to cowl the 1 BTC (with out taking any upside). Medlock has additionally mentioned he’ll donate a complete of 70% of the winnings after taxes to charity – but he’ll nonetheless pocket a cool $300,000 from a tweet which was a literal joke. 

What must occur for the wager to win?

Have been this wager to win, it’s laborious to think about what the world would appear to be. A 3600% enhance to $1 million per Bitcoin in 90 days would place the market cap of Bitcoin at near $20 trillion. That could be a mind-boggling quantity – for one factor, it’s greater than all mortgage debt within the US. 

For this to occur in 90 days would probably imply a complete collapse of the financial system and society as we all know it. The banking sector evaporating into skinny air and the US greenback collapsing would throw the world into chaos, with an nearly unimaginable stage of crime, unrest and anarchy. 

Folks would lose their life financial savings and society would collapse near-instantly. And but, there are Bitcoiners cheering on Srinivasan on this wager. Go determine. 

In an amusing accident, the wager comes almost a yr to the day that LUNA founder Do Kwon wager with one other nameless Twitter account that LUNA could be a cheaper price in a single yr than it was then. This week marked the one-year level, and I feel any cryptocurrency investor is aware of what has occurred to LUNA. 

Some folks have an excessive amount of cash and simply don’t know what to do with it, I suppose.