Bitcoin spot ETF? Specialists say SEC has “little or no wiggle room”

• ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart say the chances of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval this yr are 75%.
• The Bloomberg ETF analysts say the SEC has “little or no wiggle room” and that denying spot ETFs additional could be “politically untenable”.
• The SEC has suffered each authorized and PR loss after Grayscale’s win.

The US Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) has “little or no wiggle room” now and can quickly should approve the primary Bitcoin spot ETF for the US market.

That’s Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart’s take after yesterday’s courtroom determination that granted a assessment petition filed by Grayscale Investments. The percentages are up from 65%.

Specialists say odds of spot ETF have elevated

Balchunas shared his and Seyffart’s prediction of when the SEC may approve the ETF, noting a 75% chance it occurs in 2023 and 95% by the tip of subsequent yr. Noting that the SEC’s loss within the Grayscale lawsuit had elevated odds of a spot ETF lastly being authorized, the senior ETF analyst stated by way of a publish on X:

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by finish of ’24). Whereas we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was past expectations and leaves SEC w “little or no wiggle room” by way of @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In accordance with the ETF specialists, the SEC has suffered a double loss that leaves additional denials “politically untenable.” Aside from the authorized blow that comes with Grayscale’s win, the US regulator is taking a look at a PR loss that has a far larger influence by way of setting narratives and altering minds. Mainstream’s protection of the story and what it implies doesn’t assist the company, Balchunas famous.

“We predict the authorized and PR loss will mix to make denial politically untenable,” Balchunas wrote.

Whereas the SEC may delay upcoming ETF selections – and even deny them – the analysts say the regulator will discover it troublesome to disclaim the one by crypto asset administration agency Hashdex.

Even when SEC desires to disclaim all of those purposes. We predict they might have a really arduous time discovering a approach to deny @hashdex‘s distinctive and novel strategy for spot Bitcoin publicity in $DEFI. Worries about spot manipulation & settlement ought to be assuaged. Growing ’24 odds pic.twitter.com/b1HHbbHeEq

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 30, 2023

The SEC just lately delayed a choice on the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF proposal, whereas gentle deadlines for a number of filings together with for BlackRock, Constancy and others are arising.