Bitcoin diverges from fiat currencies and makes a brand new excessive for the yr; is that this bullish?

• Bitcoin breaks horizontal resistance on the $32k space
• The rally prolonged above $35k
• Bulls needs to be fearful as a result of Bitcoin diverges from the US greenback

Bitcoin traders are thrilled to see the cryptocurrency leaping to a brand new excessive for the yr. Extra exactly, Bitcoin traded above $35k for the primary time in over a yr. 

It did so by tripping stops seen within the $32k space. This space supplied resistance for fairly a while, and Bitcoin lastly broke above. 

That’s the excellent news for bulls. 

The dangerous information is that in doing so, Bitcoin diverges with the remainder of the fiat currencies. Extra exactly, whereas Bitcoin gained towards the US greenback, the buck rallied towards its friends. 

It could or is probably not one thing to fret about. But when I have been an investor in Bitcoin (which I’m not), I might fear. Right here is why. 

Bitcoin chart by TradingView

Bitcoin and the US greenback have diverged since Q1 2023

The issue for Bitcoin is that the greenback strengthened since Q1 2023 towards its friends. Two examples are the EUR/USD and AUD/USD trade charges, which peaked within the yr’s first quarter. 

EUR/USD, as an illustration, peaked at 1.12 and now trades round 1.06. AUD/USD erased virtually all its features from the lows in October 2022.

Bitcoin is the final one standing towards the greenback. Whereas bulls could say that it’s only regular as a result of Bitcoin will not be correlated with macro dangers and positioning, I urge to vary. 

Since Bitcoin is a part of many institutional portfolios, it does react to macro. Subsequently, the rally we see right here would seemingly be reversed until the US greenback power dissipates. Provided that the greenback begins weakening it is sensible to cheer for a Bitcoin rally. 

Till then, warning is required.