Bitcoin could hit $80K if crypto ‘animal spirits’ awaken, says Bitwise CIO

Bitwise’s Chief Funding Officer, Matt Hougan, believes Bitcoin might nonetheless attain new all-time highs of $80,000 this yr however solely underneath particular situations.

In an Oct. 9 word to traders, Hougan outlined the important thing components that would affect Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, together with the end result of the US election, financial situations, and the absence of main disruptions within the crypto area.

US elections

Hougan steered that Bitcoin might climb to $80,000 if the upcoming US election leads to something aside from an entire Democratic victory.

Whereas many view the election as an easy alternative between pro-crypto Donald Trump and ‘lukewarm’ Kamala Harris, Hougan defined the state of affairs is extra complicated.

In line with him, the Democratic occasion is populated by politicians with differing opinions in regards to the rising trade, starting from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto stance to Consultant Ritchie Torres’ sturdy help for the know-how.

Hougan argued that the Warren wing’s management over coverage and key appointments has created a difficult atmosphere for the crypto sector over the previous 4 years. So, if the Democratic occasion doesn’t win each the White Home and Congress, he expects them to take a extra impartial stance towards the trade.

He said:

“To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t want politicians. It simply wants them to get out of the way in which. And barring a Democratic sweep of each homes of Congress and the White Home, I believe they may, with the Democrats taking a extra impartial strategy to the trade.”

Hougan shared information from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket exhibiting that the percentages of a Democratic sweep are presently at 20%, whereas a Republican sweep sits at 33%. The platform additionally reveals a 54% probability of Trump successful the presidency, a 73% chance of a Republican-controlled Senate, and a 62% likelihood of a Democratic Home.

Financial situations

Hougan recognized additional financial developments as essential for Bitcoin’s potential rally. He expects two extra fee cuts from the Federal Reserve by the top of the yr, totaling 50 foundation factors, alongside extra fiscal stimulus from China.

Hougan identified that the market is raring for extra cuts, and he expects the Federal Reserve to ship the expected fee cuts. He wrote:

“If it will get each, I believe we’ll get our This fall rally. If we don’t, I feel the frustration might weigh in the marketplace.”

Stability within the crypto trade

The ultimate issue that would drive Bitcoin previous $80,000 this yr is stability inside the crypto trade.

Hougan emphasised the significance of avoiding main surprises, akin to important hacks, new lawsuits, or a flood of beforehand locked tokens coming into the market. He added:

“If we will make it by the top of the yr with out related shocks, I’d anticipate new all-time highs and past.”

‘Animal spirits’

Whereas Bitcoin’s success doesn’t depend on different cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, Hougan famous that broader optimistic sentiment within the crypto market might increase Bitcoin’s short-term efficiency.

The Bitwise CIO talked about the potential for Bitcoin to achieve $100,000 in a matter of months, particularly if “animal spirits”—a time period he makes use of to explain pro-crypto sentiment—sweep by the market.

This yr, these “animal spirits” have been comparatively absent, apart from Bitcoin. Nonetheless, Hougan believes sustained development in stablecoins and the rise of high-throughput blockchains like Sui, alongside revolutionary tasks like Babylon, might additional help Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

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