Bitcoin’s September Curse: Can 2024 Be Any Totally different?

• September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, with a mean return of -5.36%.
• Bitcoin noticed constructive returns in September solely 4 instances within the final 13 years.
• Upcoming occasions, together with the FOMC assembly, could have an effect on Bitcoin’s efficiency this month.

September has traditionally been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with a mean return of -5.36%. Prior to now 13 years, Bitcoin has posted constructive returns solely 4 instances in September. Nonetheless, market watchers are speculating that upcoming occasions may change Bitcoin’s bearish trajectory this month.

September: Bitcoin’s Traditionally Weak Month

Bitcoin has proven a constant sample of underperformance in September. Historic knowledge reveals that Bitcoin has skilled detrimental returns in 9 out of the final 13 Septembers, making it one of many worst months for the cryptocurrency with a mean detrimental return of 5.36%. 

A desk posted by Clever Recommendation on X illustrates this development, displaying that Bitcoin recorded constructive returns solely 4 instances in September. The durations embrace 2012, with a 19.8% constructive achieve; 2015, with a modest 2.6% progress; 2016 (+6.5%); and 2023 (+4%). 

In most different years, September returns had been detrimental, with notable declines like -18.3% in 2018, -13.2% in 2014, and -29.9% in 2013. This constant decline has raised considerations about one other probably bearish September.

Regardless of the historic development, Clever Recommendation factors to imminent occasions that would positively impression Bitcoin’s efficiency this September. Two key occasions are drawing consideration: the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assembly, the place a possible price reduce could possibly be introduced, and information associated to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s (CZ) attainable launch from jail.

Impression of the FOMC Assembly on Bitcoin

The FOMC assembly, scheduled for later this month, is especially necessary. If the Federal Reserve decides to chop rates of interest, it may increase Bitcoin and different threat belongings by making borrowing cheaper and inspiring funding in speculative belongings. Traditionally, price cuts have usually led to bullish actions within the cryptocurrency market as buyers search greater returns exterior of conventional monetary markets.

In the meantime, reviews about CZ’s potential launch from jail may additionally impression the market. As the previous CEO of Binance, one of many world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, information about him is broadly adopted, given his prominence in crypto within the trade. 

Market Outlook for the The rest of 2024

Bitcoin enters September with a downward development, its traditionally weakest month. Presently buying and selling at $57,873, your complete cryptocurrency market can also be experiencing a downturn. Ethereum and Binance Coin (BNB) are buying and selling decrease, and different notable cryptocurrencies like Solana and Shiba Inu are additionally going through losses.

Nonetheless, as the ultimate quarter of the 12 months approaches, there’s optimism {that a} bullish development may emerge. Notably, the present bull market gained momentum in This fall 2023 and continued into Q1 2024, when BTC reached a brand new all-time excessive.